Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
01 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela
Exposed population 150 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (04 Jul 09:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 83 km/h 0.7 m 144 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 6.4 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Haiti2,000 
CAT. 1Haiti148,423 
Tropical StormHaiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela6,429,621
+
Haiti5,021,381 
Dominican Republic165,103 
Jamaica42,052 
Guadeloupe106,578 
Dominica65,807 
Martinique369,507 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines109,461 
Barbados284,214 
Grenada76,932 
Venezuela3,582 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 187 150 thousand
- - - Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmHaiti, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines59,395
+
Haiti54,433 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines4,962 
100-250 mmDominican Republic, Haiti, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago1,323,642
+
Dominican Republic28,246 
Haiti727,448 
Saint Lucia176,749 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines102,864 
Barbados284,214 
Grenada4,096 
Trinidad and Tobago21 
50-100 mmDominican Republic, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela1,071,028
+
Dominican Republic65,454 
Haiti645,374 
Guadeloupe3,522 
Martinique495 
Saint Lucia8,249 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines1,634 
Grenada34,824 
Trinidad and Tobago310,879 
Venezuela592 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 449 1.4 million
- - - Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC