Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
01 Jul 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada
Exposed population 280 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (01 Jul 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 86 km/h 0.5 m 260 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 2.9 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Barbados3,636 
CAT. 1Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados280,573
+
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines731 
Barbados279,842 
Tropical StormDominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada2,880,267
+
Dominican Republic258,774 
Haiti1,753,333 
Puerto Rico19,768 
Virgin Islands, U.S.15,113 
Guadeloupe121,488 
Dominica65,481 
Martinique346,589 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines108,730 
Barbados736 
Grenada5,251 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 198 280 thousand
- - - Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDominican Republic, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados552,127
+
Dominican Republic22,592 
Martinique365 
Saint Lucia138,244 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines107,543 
Barbados283,382 
50-100 mmDominican Republic, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada531,665
+
Dominican Republic294,170 
Haiti2,426 
Guadeloupe11,916 
Martinique165,962 
Saint Lucia46,754 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines1,918 
Barbados832 
Grenada7,682 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 318 550 thousand
- - - - Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC