Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
02 Jul 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Exposed population 270 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (05 Jul 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 0.9 m 131 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 270 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3Haiti142 
CAT. 2Cuba, Haiti103,664
+
Cuba65,174 
Haiti38,489 
CAT. 1Cuba, Haiti168,939
+
Cuba41,637 
Haiti127,302 
Tropical StormUnited States, Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines4,973,321
+
United States11,069 
Bahamas07 
Cuba1,741,871 
Dominican Republic157,033 
Haiti2,898,024 
Puerto Rico17,223 
Guadeloupe40,645 
Martinique32,247 
Saint Lucia70,515 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines4,682 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 216 270 thousand
- - United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmCuba1,518 
500-750 mmCuba5,978 
250-500 mmCuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic260,814
+
Cuba162,586 
Dominican Republic8,637 
Haiti89,590 
100-250 mmCuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Venezuela3,413,107
+
Cuba2,513,975 
Dominican Republic71,390 
Haiti655,359 
Jamaica141,123 
Venezuela31,259 
50-100 mmBahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Venezuela3,857,119
+
Bahamas07 
Cuba1,666,853 
Dominican Republic367,957 
Haiti731,912 
Jamaica482,308 
Venezuela608,080 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 271 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 131 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Blue 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 830 3.7 million
- Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC