Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
05 Jul 2021 12 UTC
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Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, Cuba
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (07 Jul 14:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 101 km/h 1.3 m 407 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 1.9 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Cuba1,857,608
+
United States1,577,212 
Cuba280,396 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
GREEN 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Puerto Rico
GREEN 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 130 -
- - - - - Dominican Republic, Haiti
GREEN 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Dominican Republic, Haiti
GREEN 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Haiti
GREEN 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 101 -
- - - - - Haiti
GREEN 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba, Haiti
GREEN 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmCuba76,297 
250-500 mmUnited States, Cuba374,605
+
United States3,331 
Cuba371,274 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba5,376,801
+
United States2,639,033 
Cuba2,737,768 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba6,964,384
+
United States6,237,228 
Cuba727,155 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 271 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 131 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Blue 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 131 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Jul 2021 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Jul 2021 12:00 154 10 thousand
- - - - Dominican Republic
Blue 13 03 Jul 2021 18:00 179 -
- - - - - Haiti, Dominican Republic
Blue 14 04 Jul 2021 00:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 04 Jul 2021 06:00 137 20 thousand
- - - - Haiti
Blue 16 04 Jul 2021 12:00 146 70 thousand
- - - - Cuba, Jamaica
Blue 17 04 Jul 2021 18:00 213 150 thousand
- - - - Cuba, Jamaica
Blue 18 05 Jul 2021 00:00 350 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 19 05 Jul 2021 06:00 158 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 20 05 Jul 2021 12:00 716 5.8 million
- - United States, Cuba




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC