Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
05 Feb 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (05 Feb 19:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.4 m 203 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 112 km/h 0.7 m 1634 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia34,188 
100-250 mmIndonesia, East Timor, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar1,118,864
+
Indonesia1,084,849 
East Timor84 
Malawi5,172 
Mozambique1,253 
Madagascar27,503 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Burundi, Tanzania, East Timor, Malawi, Zambia, Christmas Island, Mozambique, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Comoros, Angola, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Reunion, Eswatini, South Africa47,053,767
+
Indonesia31,549,362 
Burundi24,866 
Tanzania936,012 
East Timor164,586 
Malawi1,955,577 
Zambia2,445,864 
Christmas Island2,308 
Mozambique2,851,713 
Democratic Republic of the Congo481,690 
Comoros38,055 
Angola92,823 
Madagascar6,056,453 
Zimbabwe16,302 
Namibia86 
Reunion135,935 
Eswatini577 
South Africa301,548 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 440 1.2 million
- - - Indonesia, Burundi, Tanzania, East Timor, Malawi, Zambia, Christmas Island, Mozambique, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Comoros, Angola, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Reunion, Eswatini, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC