Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for FREDDY-23 in Mozambique, Madagascar from 06 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC to 12 Mar 2023 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23

in Mozambique, Madagascar

28 Feb 2023 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (28 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	76 km/h	0.3 m	432 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	112 km/h	0.7 m	1634 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	05 Feb 2023 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	06 Feb 2023 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	06 Feb 2023 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Feb 2023 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	08 Feb 2023 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	08 Feb 2023 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	09 Feb 2023 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	09 Feb 2023 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	10 Feb 2023 00:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	10 Feb 2023 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	11 Feb 2023 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	11 Feb 2023 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	12 Feb 2023 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	12 Feb 2023 12:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	13 Feb 2023 00:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	13 Feb 2023 12:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	14 Feb 2023 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	14 Feb 2023 12:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	15 Feb 2023 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	15 Feb 2023 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	16 Feb 2023 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	16 Feb 2023 12:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	17 Feb 2023 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	17 Feb 2023 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	18 Feb 2023 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	18 Feb 2023 12:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	19 Feb 2023 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	19 Feb 2023 12:00	194	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	20 Feb 2023 00:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mauritius
31	20 Feb 2023 12:00	205	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mauritius, Reunion
32	21 Feb 2023 00:00	205	-		-	-	-	-	-	Reunion
33	21 Feb 2023 12:00	216	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
34	22 Feb 2023 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	22 Feb 2023 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	23 Feb 2023 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	23 Feb 2023 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	24 Feb 2023 00:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
39	24 Feb 2023 12:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
40	25 Feb 2023 00:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	25 Feb 2023 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	26 Feb 2023 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
43	26 Feb 2023 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	27 Feb 2023 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	27 Feb 2023 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	28 Feb 2023 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	28 Feb 2023 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Mozambique	18,987
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Mozambique	7,993,490	+
	Indonesia	5,782,279
	Mozambique	2,211,210
50-100 mm	Rwanda, Tanzania, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Australia, Zimbabwe, South Africa	86,974,849	+
	Rwanda	35,649
	Tanzania	137,332
	Indonesia	84,502,732
	Democratic Republic of the Congo	114,789
	Burundi	20,753
	East Timor	209,389
	Zambia	22,628
	Malawi	109,059
	Mozambique	1,144,365
	Madagascar	607,819
	Australia	186
	Zimbabwe	70,062
	South Africa	82

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	05 Feb 2023 12:00	203	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
2	06 Feb 2023 00:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
3	06 Feb 2023 12:00	217	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	174	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
5	07 Feb 2023 12:00	218	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	08 Feb 2023 00:00	379	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, South Africa
7	08 Feb 2023 12:00	228	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini
8	09 Feb 2023 00:00	229	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, South Africa, Eswatini
9	09 Feb 2023 12:00	310	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
10	10 Feb 2023 00:00	307	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
11	10 Feb 2023 12:00	207	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
12	11 Feb 2023 00:00	256	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, Eswatini
13	11 Feb 2023 12:00	233	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, South Africa
14	12 Feb 2023 00:00	283	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
15	12 Feb 2023 12:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Africa
16	13 Feb 2023 00:00	229	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, East Timor
17	13 Feb 2023 12:00	177	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Africa
18	14 Feb 2023 00:00	185	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
19	14 Feb 2023 12:00	197	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
20	15 Feb 2023 00:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
21	15 Feb 2023 12:00	244	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	16 Feb 2023 00:00	241	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa
23	16 Feb 2023 12:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	17 Feb 2023 00:00	201	Few people			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zambia, Botswana, Eswatini, South Africa
25	17 Feb 2023 12:00	407	-		-	-	-	-	-	Eswatini
26	18 Feb 2023 00:00	230	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zimbabwe
27	18 Feb 2023 12:00	266	-		-	-	-	-	-	Zimbabwe
28	19 Feb 2023 00:00	142	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia, Zimbabwe
29	19 Feb 2023 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
30	20 Feb 2023 00:00	171	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zimbabwe
31	20 Feb 2023 12:00	179	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Reunion
32	21 Feb 2023 00:00	229	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
33	21 Feb 2023 12:00	288	1.2 million			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
34	22 Feb 2023 00:00	234	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar, Mozambique
35	22 Feb 2023 12:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
36	23 Feb 2023 00:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar, Mozambique
37	23 Feb 2023 12:00	281	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	24 Feb 2023 00:00	143	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
39	24 Feb 2023 12:00	163	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique
40	25 Feb 2023 00:00	156	Few people			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique
41	25 Feb 2023 12:00	535	90 thousand				-	-	-	Australia, Mozambique
42	26 Feb 2023 00:00	464	50 thousand				-	-	-	Indonesia, East Timor, Australia, Mozambique
43	26 Feb 2023 12:00	608	20 thousand				-	-	-	Indonesia, East Timor, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
44	27 Feb 2023 00:00	910	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
45	27 Feb 2023 12:00	229	230 thousand			-	-	-	-	Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
46	28 Feb 2023 00:00	215	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
47	28 Feb 2023 12:00	493	8 million				-	-	-	Rwanda, Tanzania, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Australia, Zimbabwe, South Africa

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.