Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
20 Feb 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mauritius, Madagascar, Reunion
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 205 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (20 Feb 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 205 km/h 0.3 m 179 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 112 km/h 0.7 m 1634 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Madagascar17,819 
Tropical StormMauritius, Madagascar, Reunion1,495,198
+
Mauritius434,821 
Madagascar1,023,660 
Reunion36,716 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Feb 2023 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 10 Feb 2023 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 11 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 11 Feb 2023 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Feb 2023 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Feb 2023 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Feb 2023 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 14 Feb 2023 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 14 Feb 2023 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 15 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 15 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 16 Feb 2023 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 16 Feb 2023 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 17 Feb 2023 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 17 Feb 2023 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 18 Feb 2023 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 18 Feb 2023 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 19 Feb 2023 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 19 Feb 2023 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 20 Feb 2023 00:00 202 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 31 20 Feb 2023 12:00 216 20 thousand
- - - - Mauritius, Madagascar, Reunion
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar8,204 
100-250 mmIndonesia, East Timor, Mozambique, Madagascar, Reunion5,652,805
+
Indonesia2,840,014 
East Timor1,388 
Madagascar2,355,353 
Mozambique171,291 
Reunion284,756 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Tanzania, Burundi, East Timor, Mauritius, Madagascar, Australia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Reunion87,790,632
+
Indonesia82,402,064 
Tanzania63,614 
Burundi162,764 
East Timor39,835 
Mauritius181 
Madagascar2,769,572 
Australia16,342 
Malawi37,703 
Zimbabwe330,144 
Mozambique1,843,372 
Reunion125,033 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 217 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 174 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 379 -
- - - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 228 210 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 229 30 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 310 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 10 Feb 2023 00:00 307 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 11 10 Feb 2023 12:00 207 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 12 11 Feb 2023 00:00 256 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, Eswatini
Blue 13 11 Feb 2023 12:00 233 40 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 14 12 Feb 2023 00:00 283 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 15 12 Feb 2023 12:00 202 -
- - - - - South Africa
Blue 16 13 Feb 2023 00:00 229 -
- - - - - Indonesia, East Timor
Blue 17 13 Feb 2023 12:00 177 -
- - - - - South Africa
Blue 18 14 Feb 2023 00:00 185 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 19 14 Feb 2023 12:00 197 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 20 15 Feb 2023 00:00 202 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 21 15 Feb 2023 12:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 16 Feb 2023 00:00 241 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 23 16 Feb 2023 12:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 17 Feb 2023 00:00 201 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Zambia, Botswana, Eswatini, South Africa
Blue 25 17 Feb 2023 12:00 407 -
- - - - - Eswatini
Blue 26 18 Feb 2023 00:00 230 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Zimbabwe
Blue 27 18 Feb 2023 12:00 266 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe
Blue 28 19 Feb 2023 00:00 142 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia, Zimbabwe
Blue 29 19 Feb 2023 12:00 156 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 30 20 Feb 2023 00:00 171 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Zimbabwe
Blue 31 20 Feb 2023 12:00 479 5.7 million
- - - Indonesia, Tanzania, Burundi, East Timor, Mauritius, Madagascar, Australia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC