Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
12 Feb 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (12 Feb 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 133 km/h 0.5 m 283 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 112 km/h 0.7 m 1634 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Feb 2023 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 10 Feb 2023 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 11 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 11 Feb 2023 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

1634 mm

Up to 6.8 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia, East Timor, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa6,751,115
+
Indonesia5,600,263 
East Timor89,215 
Malawi50,323 
Mozambique114,308 
Zimbabwe59,307 
South Africa837,696 
50-100 mmIndonesia, East Timor, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho47,203,788
+
Indonesia32,998,273 
East Timor248,655 
Tanzania13,384 
Democratic Republic of the Congo22,232 
Malawi1,973,921 
Madagascar155,255 
Mozambique5,218,486 
Zimbabwe4,044,212 
Botswana10,065 
South Africa2,519,299 
Lesotho01 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 217 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 174 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 379 -
- - - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 228 210 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 229 30 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 310 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 10 Feb 2023 00:00 307 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 11 10 Feb 2023 12:00 207 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 12 11 Feb 2023 00:00 256 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, Eswatini
Blue 13 11 Feb 2023 12:00 233 40 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 14 12 Feb 2023 00:00 318 6.8 million
- - - - Indonesia, East Timor, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC