Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
16 Feb 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (16 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 158 km/h 0.5 m 241 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 112 km/h 0.7 m 1634 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Feb 2023 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 10 Feb 2023 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 11 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 11 Feb 2023 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Feb 2023 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Feb 2023 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Feb 2023 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 14 Feb 2023 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 14 Feb 2023 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 15 Feb 2023 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 15 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 16 Feb 2023 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

1634 mm

Up to 6.2 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Botswana, Eswatini, South Africa, Lesotho6,209,884
+
Indonesia4,267,257 
Malawi43,582 
Zambia22,653 
Mozambique731,169 
Zimbabwe1,058,826 
Botswana16,407 
South Africa47,778 
Eswatini20,831 
Lesotho1,375 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Burundi, East Timor, Tanzania, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho77,860,357
+
Indonesia52,696,171 
Burundi17,057 
East Timor23,351 
Tanzania57,899 
Malawi2,113,685 
Comoros12,444 
Madagascar2,005,254 
Zambia677,669 
Mozambique4,518,346 
Zimbabwe8,864,099 
Botswana133,059 
South Africa5,091,474 
Eswatini255,066 
Lesotho1,394,778 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 217 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 174 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 379 -
- - - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 228 210 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 8 09 Feb 2023 00:00 229 30 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, South Africa, Eswatini
Blue 9 09 Feb 2023 12:00 310 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 10 Feb 2023 00:00 307 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 11 10 Feb 2023 12:00 207 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 12 11 Feb 2023 00:00 256 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, Eswatini
Blue 13 11 Feb 2023 12:00 233 40 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 14 12 Feb 2023 00:00 283 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 15 12 Feb 2023 12:00 202 -
- - - - - South Africa
Blue 16 13 Feb 2023 00:00 229 -
- - - - - Indonesia, East Timor
Blue 17 13 Feb 2023 12:00 177 -
- - - - - South Africa
Blue 18 14 Feb 2023 00:00 185 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 19 14 Feb 2023 12:00 197 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 20 15 Feb 2023 00:00 202 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 21 15 Feb 2023 12:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 16 Feb 2023 00:00 694 6.2 million
- - - - Indonesia, Burundi, East Timor, Tanzania, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC