Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
08 Feb 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (08 Feb 14:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 108 km/h 0.6 m 228 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 112 km/h 0.7 m 1634 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSouth Africa51,863 
100-250 mmIndonesia, East Timor, Comoros, South Africa, Mozambique, Eswatini, Lesotho7,093,376
+
Indonesia4,023,180 
East Timor11,253 
Mozambique21,455 
Comoros3,800 
South Africa2,249,670 
Eswatini753,575 
Lesotho30,439 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Tanzania, Burundi, East Timor, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Zambia, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho91,453,001
+
Indonesia65,677,431 
Tanzania268,379 
Burundi20,020 
East Timor58,282 
Malawi1,354,676 
Mozambique4,642,385 
Comoros30,806 
Zambia234,978 
Madagascar1,077,886 
Zimbabwe732,920 
Botswana19,341 
South Africa16,080,968 
Eswatini531,774 
Lesotho723,149 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2023 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 12:00 217 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 174 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Mozambique
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Feb 2023 00:00 379 -
- - - - - Indonesia, South Africa
Blue 7 08 Feb 2023 12:00 391 7.1 million
- - - Indonesia, Tanzania, Burundi, East Timor, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Zambia, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2023 12:00 UTC