Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

07 Dec 2019 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Mayotte, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (08 Dec 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	79 km/h	0.3 m	134 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to 220 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Mayotte, Madagascar	220,267	+
	Seychelles	206
	Mayotte	217,290
	Madagascar	2,771

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Mayotte, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Mayotte, Madagascar	256,848	+
	Seychelles	206
	Madagascar	39,342
	Mayotte	217,300
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Comoros, Madagascar	296,869	+
	Tanzania	8,797
	Comoros	18,974
	Madagascar	269,098

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	385	260 thousand			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Dapani, Mayotte. This height is estimated for 08 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Dapani	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Bandele	Mayotte	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 17:00	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 18:15	Cani	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 17:30	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:30	Accua	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:30	Moliha	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:30	Sada	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:30	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:30	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:30	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:30	Longoni	Mayotte	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 14:30	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 23:45	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 23:45	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 23:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 06:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 06:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Tataho	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Manakara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:15	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Nacala Velha	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Namelala	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Capelelene	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Nhiendgi	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Maaia	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Nacala	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Chepa	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Matiquite	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Minhauine	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Mwera	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Domoni	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Mitsamiouli	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Combani	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Ifoundihe	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Chezani	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:45	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Nangata	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:45	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 03:45	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 03:45	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 03:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Kiechuru	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.