Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

17 May 2021 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	China, India, Nepal
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	202 km/h
Maximum storm surge	2.4 m (17 May 17:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	202 km/h	2.4 m	388 mm	2.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

223 km/h

Up to 1.5 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 3	India	47
CAT. 2	India	153,657
CAT. 1	India	1,359,120
Tropical Storm	China, India, Nepal	47,811,673	+
	China	9,569
	India	47,800,913
	Nepal	1,190

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	176	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	212	250 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	223	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
12	17 May 2021 00:00	220	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
13	17 May 2021 06:00	220	1.4 million				-	-	-	India
14	17 May 2021 12:00	202	1.5 million					-	-	China, India, Nepal

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	5,135,680
100-250 mm	India	53,524,137
50-100 mm	China, India, Nepal	84,964,763	+
	China	88
	India	84,939,852
	Nepal	24,822

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	270	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	241	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	288	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	238	6 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	335	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	346	490 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
12	17 May 2021 00:00	286	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
13	17 May 2021 06:00	286	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
14	17 May 2021 12:00	400	58.7 million				-	-	-	China, India, Nepal

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 2.4m in Kathiwadar Bandar, India. This height is estimated for 17 May 2021 17:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2021 17:15	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 17:15	Mahuva	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 17:15	Kotada	India	2.3
	17 May 2021 18:00	Wadgam	India	2.3
	17 May 2021 18:00	Kambhat	India	2.3
	17 May 2021 18:00	Kavi	India	2.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Sarod	India	2.2
	17 May 2021 17:45	Asarsa	India	2.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Tankari	India	2.2
	17 May 2021 17:30	Harinagar	India	2.2
	17 May 2021 17:30	Ghogha	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 17:15	Dahej	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 17:00	Jafarabad	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 17:30	Muler	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 16:15	Hansot	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 15:30	Bhagva	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 15:30	Damka	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 15:30	Olpad	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 14:00	Surat	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 14:00	Jalalpur	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 14:00	Mahuver	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 12:15	Dharabandar	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 12:15	Rohisa	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 14:15	Nausari	India	1.7
	17 May 2021 14:15	Navsari	India	1.7
	17 May 2021 14:15	Dharasana	India	1.6
	17 May 2021 14:15	Valsad	India	1.6
	17 May 2021 14:45	Bilimora	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 14:15	Udvada	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 12:00	Delvada	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 12:00	Nawabandar	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 14:15	Daman	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 14:30	Maroli	India	1.4
	17 May 2021 14:00	Umbargam	India	1.4
	17 May 2021 14:45	Bordi	India	1.3
	17 May 2021 14:45	Gholvad	India	1.3
	17 May 2021 15:00	Malyan	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 14:45	Sakhare	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 14:45	Tarapur	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 15:00	Boisar	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 12:15	Shirgaon	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:15	Palghar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:15	Mahim	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:30	Nalasopara	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:30	Agashi	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:30	Dongri	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:30	Vasai	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:30	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:30	Navghar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Dangarvadi	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Mumbai	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Asumumbay	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Uran	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Trombay	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Diva	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Taloje	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:15	Kotra Nes	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 12:15	Malad	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 12:30	Mandve	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 12:30	Kodinar	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 12:45	Alibag	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 12:30	Revadanda	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 12:30	Lodhwa	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 13:15	Murud	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 13:15	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 13:15	Srivardhan	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 12:45	Sutrapada	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 12:45	Veraval	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 12:45	Somnath	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 13:00	Bankot	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 13:00	Kelshi	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 13:15	Anjanwel	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 12:15	Guhagar	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 12:00	Boria	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 12:00	Jaigarh	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 12:30	Mirya	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 12:15	Ratnagiri	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 13:15	Chorwad	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 12:15	Purnagad	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:15	Ratia	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:15	Gorser	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:15	Shil	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:00	Mangrol	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:00	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:00	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:00	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:00	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 17:45	Miyani	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 17:45	Porbandar	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 17:45	Adodar	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:45	Purangad	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:45	Adiura	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:30	Malvan	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Vijayadurg	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Devgarh	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Pural	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 17:45	Lamba	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:30	Achra	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:30	Vengurla	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:30	Terekhol	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Marmagao	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Panaji	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Agacaim	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Madgaon	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:30	Chopdem	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 14:30	Anjuna	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Bhogat	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Madhi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 14:45	Advota	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 14:45	Chaudi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:00	Al Ashkharah	Oman	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Kozhikode	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Beypore	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Chaliyam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Tirurangadi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Tanur	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:15	Karwar	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:15	Belekeri	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:15	Ankola	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:15	Gokarn	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 16:30	Atirampattinam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 16:45	Kattumavadi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 14:15	Ormara Raik	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 14:15	Ormara	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:30	Kumta	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 16:15	Rumra	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 16:15	Kalat	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Edakkad	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Dharmadam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Tellicherry	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Mahe	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Badagara	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Payyoli	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:30	Honavar	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:30	Manki	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 14:30	Majali	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Tanniyurnagaram	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Chirakkal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Valapattanam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Azhikkal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Cannanore	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Quilandi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Talakkolattur	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 17:15	Manamelkudi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:00	Had	Oman	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.