Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
04 Dec 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (04 Dec 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 0.3 m 353 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 5 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSomalia4,514 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Somalia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmSomalia457 
250-500 mmSomalia28,965 
100-250 mmYemen, Somalia230,090
+
Yemen3,573 
Somalia226,517 
50-100 mmYemen, Somalia, Ethiopia566,077
+
Yemen8,400 
Somalia551,207 
Ethiopia6,470 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 348 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 111 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 578 260 thousand
- - Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Baarbacadle, Somalia. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Eyl Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 23:45 'Ag Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 20:30 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 19:15 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 19:15 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:15 Ascira Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 23:15 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 23:15 Dauli Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Bargaal Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Aiesloho Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Mach Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Tooxin Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Xaafuun Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:15 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 20:45 Hen Daier Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Sala Gon Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 20:45 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Ghubbah Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Qadub Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 23:30 Beylu Eritrea  0.2
04 Dec 2019 19:15 Gishub Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 23:15 Bereeda Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Boho Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Hobyo Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 21:45 Harag Jid Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 18:15 Tabut Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 18:15 Hayrut Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 18:15 Nishtun Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 20:00 Darimoh Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 21:00 Garahadde Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 21:30 Takhushih Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 21:30 Saylac Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:00 Cadayo Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Buyut al Muhamirah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Al Fazah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Lakba Oman  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Sawqirah Oman  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Lakabi Oman  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Qaysad Oman  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Midi Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Al Kharamilah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 21:30 Loyado Djibouti  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Al Madasikah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:45 Al Ghulayfiqah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Al Butays Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:00 Kamaran Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:00 Sayfaf Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:00 Al Jazirah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:00 Qurayyah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:00 Al Khawbah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:00 Ibn Abbas Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Culli Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:15 Sair Saudi Arabia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:15 Haima Saudi Arabia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:15 Fugwa Saudi Arabia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:15 Sajid Saudi Arabia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:15 Humr Saudi Arabia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:45 Beraisole Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Marero Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Bacaad Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Aantaara Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 20:30 Tadjoura Djibouti  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:45 Behld Eritrea  0.1
04 Dec 2019 22:15 Farasan Saudi Arabia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Al Mansuri Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 23:00 Kraytar Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 21:00 Al 'Urj Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 21:00 Jabanah Yemen  0.1