Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
28 Aug 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (28 Aug 02:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 115 km/h 0.5 m 143 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 2.4 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico211 
Tropical StormMexico2,403,554 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 122 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMexico2,675 
500-750 mmMexico119,654 
250-500 mmMexico1,967,960 
100-250 mmMexico4,962,615 
50-100 mmMexico6,663,066 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 193 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 1012 7.1 million
- Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in La Manzanilla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 02:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Aug 2021 02:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.5
28 Aug 2021 03:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 04:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 04:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 05:45 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 01:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 03:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 01:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:30 Monteon Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:30 La Lima Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 02:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 02:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 05:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 04:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 04:45 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 03:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 03:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Cedros Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 03:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:45 Dimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:15 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:15 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Chola Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:30 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:30 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:45 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:30 Ipala Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:45 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:15 La Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:45 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:45 Santiago Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:30 Coronado United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:30 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:30 Boal United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:45 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:30 Chamela Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:45 Barron Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:15 El Real Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 02:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1