Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
30 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (01 Sep 19:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.2 m 302 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 0.5 m 838 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Aug 2021 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 29 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 10 29 Aug 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 30 Aug 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 30 Aug 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico5,587 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,174,381
+
United States201,971 
Mexico972,409 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico17,073,761
+
United States602,806 
Mexico16,470,954 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 175 70 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 597 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 664 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 215 30 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 8 28 Aug 2021 12:00 177 570 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 9 29 Aug 2021 00:00 299 160 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 10 29 Aug 2021 12:00 189 590 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 30 Aug 2021 00:00 356 360 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 30 Aug 2021 12:00 347 1.2 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2021 19:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Sep 2021 19:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 16:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 22:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 22:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 20:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 17:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 17:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 16:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:00 La Playa Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:15 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 14:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 18:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 15:45 Dimas Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:30 El Tule Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 18:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:15 Coronado United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:15 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:15 Boal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:00 San Diego United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:45 Monteon Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:45 La Lima Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 14:00 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Roseville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:15 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:00 Florida Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 12:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:15 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:15 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1