Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 20:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 0.4 m 67 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

122 km/h

Up to 70 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico66,493 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 119 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 10 Sep 2021 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 10 Sep 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 10 Sep 2021 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico309,267 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 148 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 10 Sep 2021 06:00 104 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 10 Sep 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 13 10 Sep 2021 18:00 171 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 20:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 20:45 La Florida Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 20:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 20:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 04:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 02:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 02:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 04:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Quinones Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 04:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 00:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 04:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 03:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 21:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 21:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 00:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 04:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 04:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 18:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 18:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 18:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 20:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 20:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 23:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 18:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 04:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 18:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:30 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:30 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 18:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 18:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 07:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 04:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 04:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Chola Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Chamela Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 04:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 19:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Ipala Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 23:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 13:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 13:00 Chula Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 07:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1