Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba
30 Aug 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDA-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Colombia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (30 Aug 00:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cuba)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 122 km/h 2.4 m 189 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.8 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Colombia1,440,379
+
United States1,363,386 
Colombia76,993 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States, Cayman Islands
GREEN 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Cayman Islands
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - Cuba
GREEN 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 173 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 169 4 thousand
- - - United States
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 18:00 155 1 thousand
- - - - United States
GREEN 15 30 Aug 2021 00:00 122 -
- - - - - United States, Colombia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

471 mm

Up to 4.9 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States255,557 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Venezuela4,637,987
+
United States4,400,792 
Mexico29,221 
Guatemala81,815 
Nicaragua26,135 
Costa Rica100,004 
Venezuela17 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela55,991,882
+
United States17,169,706 
Mexico29,737,961 
Guatemala4,613,042 
Honduras402,715 
El Salvador349,999 
Nicaragua579,363 
Colombia3,026,945 
Costa Rica108,180 
Venezuela3,966 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Jamaica
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Aug 2021 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Aug 2021 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 12:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 84 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 8 28 Aug 2021 06:00 105 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 28 Aug 2021 12:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 29 Aug 2021 00:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Aug 2021 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 29 Aug 2021 12:00 209 Few people
- - - - United States
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 18:00 202 800 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 15 30 Aug 2021 00:00 298 4.9 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC