Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

07 Dec 2019 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	5 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	101 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.0 m (10 Dec 00:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	101 km/h	1.0 m	227 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Madagascar	4,928
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Madagascar	78,512	+
	Seychelles	138
	Madagascar	78,374

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	173	5 thousand			-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	01
100-250 mm	Madagascar	126,610
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte	847,851	+
	Seychelles	138
	Mozambique	12,989
	Comoros	8,522
	Madagascar	608,902
	Mayotte	217,300

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	395	130 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in Ankirijibe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Dec 2019 00:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Dec 2019 00:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	1.0
	10 Dec 2019 00:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	1.0
	10 Dec 2019 00:30	Manampea	Madagascar	1.0
	10 Dec 2019 00:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	1.0
	10 Dec 2019 00:30	Onara	Madagascar	1.0
	10 Dec 2019 00:45	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.8
	10 Dec 2019 03:15	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.7
	10 Dec 2019 03:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.7
	10 Dec 2019 03:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.7
	10 Dec 2019 03:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.7
	10 Dec 2019 03:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 04:30	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 23:15	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 23:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.5
	10 Dec 2019 04:30	Andemba	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 23:15	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 23:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 23:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 23:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 23:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Baly	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Soalala	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Befamata	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Zavo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:30	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:30	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:45	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:45	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:15	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:15	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:15	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:15	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:15	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:15	Domoni	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:15	Mitsamiouli	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:15	Combani	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:15	Ifoundihe	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:15	Chezani	Comoros	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:45	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:45	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 16:15	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 16:15	Savana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 16:15	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 16:15	Tataho	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.