Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
06 Dec 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (06 Dec 02:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 68 km/h 0.3 m 465 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSomalia46,945 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Somalia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSomalia37,338 
100-250 mmSomalia, Ethiopia228,270
+
Somalia226,994 
Ethiopia1,276 
50-100 mmSomalia, Ethiopia372,780
+
Somalia347,280 
Ethiopia25,500 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 348 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 111 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 353 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 223 -
- - - - - Yemen
Blue 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 265 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 283 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 466 270 thousand
- - - Somalia, Ethiopia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Aiesloho, Somalia. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 02:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Dec 2019 02:30 Aiesloho Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 02:30 Mach Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 08:00 Tooxin Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 03:15 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:15 Xaafuun Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 14:45 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 14:45 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 02:00 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 02:00 Dauli Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:30 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:30 Eyl Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:30 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:45 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:45 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 04:30 Hen Daier Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 04:30 Hobyo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 00:45 Bargaal Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 14:30 Ascira Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Sala Gon Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 15:00 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:00 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 15:00 'Ag Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 02:45 Cadayo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 09:15 Darimoh Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 04:00 Culli Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Garahadde Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Bandar Jedid Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 14:15 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:30 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Tabut Yemen  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Hayrut Yemen  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Nishtun Yemen  0.2
06 Dec 2019 22:00 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:45 Botiala Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Aantaara Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Buro Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 04:00 Saylac Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 04:00 Loyado Djibouti  0.1
06 Dec 2019 04:00 Takhushih Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 08:45 Bereeda Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:30 Gishub Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:30 Steroh Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:30 Midi Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:30 Al Kharamilah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:15 Al Qahmah Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:15 Musaykah Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:15 Qishn Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Al Mansuri Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Kraytar Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:30 Al Madasikah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 22:15 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 22:15 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 22:15 Biyafoge Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 22:15 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:15 Qandala Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 12:00 Lakabi Oman  0.1
06 Dec 2019 12:00 Qaysad Oman  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Berbera Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Dhurbo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Bandar Murcaayo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Geesaley Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Abo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:00 Djibouti Djibouti  0.1
06 Dec 2019 11:00 Boho Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 11:00 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:00 Seyara Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 04:45 Tadjoura Djibouti  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:15 Rehayto Eritrea  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Qadub Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:45 Hundegal Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:15 Mulaax Beyle Somalia  0.1
07 Dec 2019 01:30 Caluula Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:15 Fagal Djibouti  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:15 Khor Angar Djibouti  0.1
06 Dec 2019 05:00 Mayyun Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:15 Boosaaso Somalia  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:15 Marero Somalia  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:15 Bacaad Somalia  0.1
07 Dec 2019 03:15 Kamaran Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 03:15 Sayfaf Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 03:15 Al Jazirah Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 03:15 Qurayyah Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 03:15 Al Khawbah Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 03:15 Ibn Abbas Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 12:00 Lakba Oman  0.1
06 Dec 2019 12:00 Sawqirah Oman  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:30 Al Bahiyah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:45 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 08:15 Beylu Eritrea  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:30 Laasqoray Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:45 Al Hajaf Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Khormaksar Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:00 'Adan Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 05:00 Geeri Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 22:30 Ari Adeso Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Carmaale Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:30 Lughaye Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:45 Murad Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:45 Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 16:15 Ceelaayo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 16:15 Bender Siyaada Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:30 Anteral Somalia  0.1