Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
28 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (28 Aug 13:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 133 km/h 0.4 m 220 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico1,601,292 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

1646 mm

Up to 4.7 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmMexico8,119 
750-1000 mmMexico12,490 
500-750 mmMexico850,334 
250-500 mmMexico890,948 
100-250 mmMexico2,947,586 
50-100 mmMexico5,429,968 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 193 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 143 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 179 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 1259 4.7 million
Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Manzanilla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 13:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Aug 2021 13:45 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.4
28 Aug 2021 12:00 El Tule Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 12:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Santiago Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:30 Chola Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:45 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:30 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Santa Marie Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:30 Monteon Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:15 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 El Real Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:30 Cedros Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Cayaca Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 14:15 San Telmo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:45 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:15 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:30 Apisa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:15 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:45 San Blas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 La Choya Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:15 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:15 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:45 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:30 Erendria Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Ipala Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:30 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:45 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:15 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:30 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:30 Chula Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:15 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Roseville United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 San Diego United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Coronado United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Boal United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:15 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:15 Mission Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:45 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:45 Corrales Mexico  0.1