Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mozambique, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 227 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Mar 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 227 km/h 0.6 m 0 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 212 km/h 4.1 m 0 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique, Madagascar968
+
Mozambique72 
Madagascar896 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 227 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

0 mm

Up to Few people can be affected rain lower than 100mm





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Tambohorano, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Mar 2019 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Mar 2019 12:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 12:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 12:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 12:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 15:30 Colchester South Africa  0.4
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 00:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 00:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 00:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 00:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 09:00 Onara Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 22:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 22:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 15:00 Richmond South Africa  0.2
10 Mar 2019 03:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 03:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 22:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 10:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 10:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Tama Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 22:15 Baly Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:45 Napito Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:45 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 02:30 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 11:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 11:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Larde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Amado Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Barra Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Jo Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:45 Ambazoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:45 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:45 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:45 Esanta Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:45 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:45 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 10:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:45 Catine Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:45 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:45 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:45 Talaky Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:30 Highfield South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:30 Mtunzini South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:45 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:45 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:45 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Ali Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link