Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Mar 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 108 km/h 0.4 m 0 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 212 km/h 4.1 m 0 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar1167 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 227 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 252 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 245 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Ankirijibe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Mar 2019 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Onara Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 02:30 Colchester South Africa  0.3
10 Mar 2019 02:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 02:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 05:45 Baly Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 05:45 Soalala Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Memba Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Formone Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 01:15 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 01:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 01:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:45 Richmond South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Tama Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Beula Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:45 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 01:30 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:45 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Metula Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Napito Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Palma Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Boala Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 01:45 Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Ali Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:00 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:00 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:00 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:00 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Amado Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link