Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (05 Dec 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	71 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 5 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Madagascar	4,504	+
	Seychelles	399
	Madagascar	4,105

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles	261
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar	75,753	+
	Tanzania	01
	Seychelles	401
	Madagascar	75,351

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	435	Few people			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Antsisikala, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Lotsohina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 20:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:30	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:30	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:30	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Namuali	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:00	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:00	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:00	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Mkarangama	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Kipingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Kirongwe	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:45	Jimbo	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:15	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 23:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.