Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	180 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.1 m (09 Dec 11:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	180 km/h	1.1 m	167 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 3	Madagascar	650
CAT. 2	Madagascar	3,779
CAT. 1	Madagascar	20,185
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	371,998

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	148	Few people	-		-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	151	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	158	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Dec 2019 06:00	187	20 thousand					-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	26,342
100-250 mm	Madagascar	222,520
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar	2,750,912	+
	Tanzania	10,079
	Mozambique	4,259
	Madagascar	2,736,574

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	142	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Dec 2019 06:00	392	250 thousand				-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.1m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 11:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Andanivato	Madagascar	1.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	1.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	1.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Andramy	Madagascar	1.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Marotaola	Madagascar	1.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Majunga	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 13:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 13:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 13:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 13:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:45	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:45	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 03:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 03:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:15	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:15	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:00	Assane	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:00	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:00	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:00	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.