Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Seychelles
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (06 Dec 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 119 km/h 0.2 m 265 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 198 km/h 1.0 m 515 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

198 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Seychelles206 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Dec 2019 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Dec 2019 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Dec 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 5 05 Dec 2019 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Dec 2019 00:00 166 Few people -
- - - - Seychelles
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSeychelles159 
100-250 mmSeychelles, Madagascar76,998
+
Seychelles47 
Madagascar76,951 
50-100 mmSeychelles, Madagascar, Mayotte569,660
+
Seychelles289 
Madagascar472,666 
Mayotte96,705 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Dec 2019 00:00 228 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Dec 2019 06:00 301 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Dec 2019 12:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Dec 2019 18:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Dec 2019 00:00 456 80 thousand
- - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Mayotte




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ambodiadabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Dec 2019 12:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 12:15 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 12:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 12:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 12:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 09:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 09:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 09:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 09:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 09:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
06 Dec 2019 09:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
08 Dec 2019 12:45 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 12:45 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 12:45 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 12:45 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 12:45 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 12:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:45 Donge Tanzania  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:45 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:45 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:45 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:45 Mkuuni Tanzania  0.1
06 Dec 2019 10:45 Gazija Tanzania  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 01:45 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 01:45 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 01:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 01:45 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 01:45 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 08:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:15 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:15 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:15 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 12:45 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 09:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 09:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 09:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 09:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 09:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 09:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Antonibe Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Antantiloky Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 12:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 12:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
07 Dec 2019 08:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
07 Dec 2019 08:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
07 Dec 2019 08:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
07 Dec 2019 08:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
07 Dec 2019 08:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
07 Dec 2019 08:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 09:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 09:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Accua Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Moliha Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Cani Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Sada Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Dzoumogne Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Chingoni Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Dapani Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Bandele Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Dembeni Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Longoni Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 22:45 Mamoudzou Mayotte  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:00 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:00 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
08 Dec 2019 12:45 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
08 Dec 2019 13:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:45 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
06 Dec 2019 08:15 Gulioni Tanzania  0.1