Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.0 m (09 Dec 13:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	169 km/h	1.0 m	134 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	Madagascar	937
CAT. 1	Madagascar	15,585
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	342,696

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	148	Few people	-		-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	151	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	158	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Dec 2019 06:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Dec 2019 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Dec 2019 18:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mayotte
18	09 Dec 2019 00:00	198	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
19	09 Dec 2019 06:00	169	20 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	1,410,104
50-100 mm	Madagascar, Mozambique	7,156,245	+
	Madagascar	7,153,575
	Mozambique	2,670

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	142	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Dec 2019 06:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Dec 2019 12:00	114	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
17	08 Dec 2019 18:00	174	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Dec 2019 00:00	159	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Dec 2019 06:00	203	1.4 million			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 13:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Andanivato	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Andramy	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Marotaola	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 11:30	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Soalala	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:45	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 16:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:30	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Momade	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Metopa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Barroa	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.