Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (05 Dec 05:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	79 km/h	0.2 m	228 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Madagascar	2,476	+
	Seychelles	206
	Madagascar	2,270

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	796	+
	Seychelles	206
	Madagascar	590
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar	144,035	+
	Tanzania	83
	Seychelles	464
	Madagascar	143,488

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	364	Few people			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 05:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 04:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 04:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 04:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 04:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 04:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 04:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Lotsohina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 04:45	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 05:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 05:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:30	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:30	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Namuali	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:15	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:15	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:15	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:15	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:15	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:15	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 05:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:30	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:30	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:30	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:30	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:00	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.