Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	9 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (09 Dec 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	158 km/h	0.8 m	114 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

198 km/h

Up to 9 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Madagascar	8,963
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	102,494

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	148	Few people	-		-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	151	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	158	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Dec 2019 06:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Dec 2019 12:00	166	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	256,983
50-100 mm	Mozambique, Madagascar	3,697,463	+
	Mozambique	25,331
	Madagascar	3,672,132

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	142	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Dec 2019 06:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Dec 2019 12:00	303	260 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 11:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Andramy	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 13:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 13:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 13:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 13:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 13:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 17:00	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 17:00	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 17:00	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 17:00	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:15	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 06:45	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 20:45	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 04:00	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 04:30	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Sada	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 21:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	Assane	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 21:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 16:15	Namuali	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 16:15	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 16:15	Muaco	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.