Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Mayotte
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	97 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (05 Dec 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	97 km/h	0.3 m	85 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

198 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Mayotte	21,605	+
	Seychelles	206
	Mayotte	21,399

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Mayotte

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Seychelles	163
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	111,322	+
	Seychelles	43
	Madagascar	111,279
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte	859,852	+
	Tanzania	60,509
	Seychelles	289
	Madagascar	395,291
	Comoros	186,463
	Mayotte	217,300

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	411	110 thousand				-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 22:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 22:45	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 22:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 22:45	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 22:45	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 20:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Cani	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Sada	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Dapani	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Bandele	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:00	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 08:15	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Mutadua	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.