Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	280 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (09 Dec 09:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	158 km/h	0.8 m	85 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 280 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	Madagascar	9,151
CAT. 1	Seychelles, Madagascar	267,391	+
	Seychelles	138
	Madagascar	267,253
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Madagascar	199,666	+
	Seychelles	68
	Madagascar	199,598

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	148	Few people	-		-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	151	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	180	280 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	140,875
100-250 mm	Madagascar	390,758
50-100 mm	Madagascar	3,024,763

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	142	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	421	530 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Andamoty, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 09:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Majunga	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.6
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.6
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.6
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.6
	09 Dec 2019 08:00	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Andramy	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:00	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:00	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:00	Berafia	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 04:45	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 04:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 04:30	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 04:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 04:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 06:45	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:15	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.