Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Seychelles
Exposed population	Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	119 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (06 Dec 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	119 km/h	0.2 m	135 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Seychelles	25
Tropical Storm	Seychelles	181

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	180	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Seychelles	138
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	41,545	+
	Seychelles	68
	Madagascar	41,477
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte	1,158,196	+
	Seychelles	250
	Madagascar	743,495
	Comoros	197,151
	Mayotte	217,300

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	442	40 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ambodiadabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 10:45	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Cani	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Sada	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Dapani	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Bandele	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 08:15	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:00	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.