Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	108 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (05 Dec 14:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	108 km/h	0.3 m	139 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Madagascar	2,165	+
	Seychelles	206
	Madagascar	1,959

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	9,444	+
	Seychelles	206
	Madagascar	9,238
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar, Mayotte	495,328	+
	Seychelles	289
	Madagascar	321,216
	Mayotte	173,823

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	299	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 14:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 23:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 21:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 22:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:15	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Namuali	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Muaco	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 08:15	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:45	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 21:45	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 03:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 09:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Mutadua	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 18:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.