Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	173 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.0 m (09 Dec 14:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	173 km/h	1.0 m	150 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	Madagascar	6,344
CAT. 1	Madagascar	16,285
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	378,832

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	148	Few people	-		-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	151	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	158	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	176	20 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	30,315
100-250 mm	Madagascar	212,037
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Madagascar	3,195,635	+
	Tanzania	169
	Madagascar	3,195,466

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	142	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	407	240 thousand				-	-	-	Tanzania, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 14:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Andanivato	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Andramy	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Marotaola	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Soalala	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:30	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 02:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:30	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 05:00	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 05:00	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 05:00	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 05:00	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 00:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 00:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 00:15	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 00:15	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 00:15	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 00:15	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 23:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.