Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
26 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (26 Aug 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 0.2 m 240 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

140 km/h

Up to 6 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico6,388 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 126 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico616,325 
100-250 mmMexico3,946,005 
50-100 mmMexico2,948,786 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 458 4.6 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in La Choya, Mexico. This height is estimated for 26 Aug 2021 22:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 Aug 2021 22:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 23:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 20:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 21:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 20:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 20:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 21:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 21:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 21:15 Chula Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 19:15 La Florida Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:30 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:30 El Marques Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 23:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 21:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 20:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 00:00 La Playa Mexico  0.1