Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 47 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (31 Aug 08:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 47 km/h 0.3 m 120 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

140 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 30 Aug 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 19 30 Aug 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico6,674 
100-250 mmMexico610,687 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico25,678,618
+
United States69,940 
Mexico25,608,678 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 157 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 167 170 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 132 80 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 82 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 164 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 18 30 Aug 2021 00:00 103 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 19 30 Aug 2021 06:00 305 620 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2021 08:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2021 08:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
31 Aug 2021 10:00 La Choya Mexico  0.3
31 Aug 2021 09:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 10:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 19:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:45 La Playa Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:15 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2021 02:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 16:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 14:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Azure Vista United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Roseville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Loma Portal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 San Diego United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Coronado United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:00 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:00 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:00 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:15 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:15 El Marques Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:00 Boal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1