Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
30 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 40 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Aug 09:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 40 km/h 0.2 m 83 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

140 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 30 Aug 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 19 30 Aug 2021 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 30 Aug 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 30 Aug 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico788,839 
50-100 mmMexico33,551,286 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 157 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 167 170 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 132 80 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 82 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 164 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 18 30 Aug 2021 00:00 103 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 19 30 Aug 2021 06:00 120 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 20 30 Aug 2021 12:00 126 8 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 21 30 Aug 2021 18:00 124 790 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2021 09:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2021 09:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 12:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 12:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 19:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 16:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:45 La Playa Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2021 04:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2021 02:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 19:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 16:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 16:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:15 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:15 El Marques Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 21:45 Monteon Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 21:45 La Lima Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1