Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CHENESO-23 in Madagascar from 18 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC to 29 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23

in Madagascar

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mauritius
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (17 Jan 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	68 km/h	0.4 m	134 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	104 km/h	0.7 m	1041 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

104 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mauritius	87

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	17 Jan 2023 12:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mauritius

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	455,862
100-250 mm	Madagascar, Reunion	4,408,603	+
	Madagascar	4,400,861
	Reunion	7,741
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion	5,634,719	+
	Tanzania	109,941
	Zambia	256,538
	Malawi	1,785,413
	Mozambique	284,284
	Madagascar	2,752,486
	Mauritius	211,621
	Reunion	234,433

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	17 Jan 2023 12:00	495	4.9 million				-	-	-	Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Toamasina, Anantoraka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19/01/2023 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19/01/2023 15:00	Toamasina, Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.4
	19/01/2023 15:00	Toamasina, Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.3
	19/01/2023 15:00	Toamasina, Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	17/01/2023 21:00	Toamasina, Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	19/01/2023 15:00	Antsiranana, Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 18:00	Sofala, Jonja	Mozambique	0.2
	17/01/2023 23:00	Pwani, Msindaji	Tanzania	0.2
	17/01/2023 17:00	Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba	Tanzania	0.2
	17/01/2023 20:00	Zambezia, Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.2
	17/01/2023 21:00	Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	17/01/2023 18:00	Toamasina, Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 18:00	Sofala, Machesse	Mozambique	0.2
	17/01/2023 16:00	Mahajanga, Andamoty	Madagascar	0.2
	17/01/2023 18:00	Pwani, Magawa	Tanzania	0.2
	18/01/2023 00:00	, Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19/01/2023 14:00	Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.2
	17/01/2023 18:00	, Maxixe	Mozambique	0.2
	19/01/2023 03:00	, Nosy Komba Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18/01/2023 15:00	Mahajanga, Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	19/01/2023 16:00	Toamasina, Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	19/01/2023 14:00	Antsiranana, Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.2
	19/01/2023 14:00	Antsiranana, Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.2
	17/01/2023 18:00	Pwani, Kisiju	Tanzania	0.2
	18/01/2023 16:00	Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 14:00	Antsiranana, Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 03:00	Antsiranana, Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 14:00	Antsiranana, Antalaha	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 21:00	Toamasina, Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 03:00	Antsiranana, Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 18:00	Mahajanga, Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 14:00	Antsiranana, Ampaha	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 15:00	Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 17:00	Antsiranana, Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 15:00	Zambezia, Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	Tanga, Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	Tanga, Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1
	17/01/2023 15:00	Zambezia, Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	17/01/2023 15:00	Toamasina, Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	18/01/2023 06:00	Antsiranana, Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 23:00	, Bartolomeu Dias	Mozambique	0.1
	19/01/2023 17:00	Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 14:00	KwaZulu Natal, Dokodweni	South Africa	0.1
	19/01/2023 04:00	, Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 16:00	Mahajanga, Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	20/01/2023 00:00	Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19/01/2023 15:00	Antsiranana, Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	Dar-es-Salaam, Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	Dar-es-Salaam, Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	Coast, Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	, Marivate	Mozambique	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	Coast, Kisima Chande	Kenya	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	19/01/2023 19:00	Mahajanga, Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 15:00	, Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	17/01/2023 17:00	Coast, Watamu	Kenya	0.1
	19/01/2023 14:00	Antsiranana, Amboanio	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 18:00	Kusini Unguja (Zanzibar Central/South), Zanzibar Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17/01/2023 15:00	Toamasina, Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	20/01/2023 07:00	Toamasina, Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 19:00	, Chicoque	Mozambique	0.1
	17/01/2023 15:00	Toamasina, Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 14:00	Inhambane, Inhassoro	Mozambique	0.1
	17/01/2023 13:00	Toliara, Beaniky	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 14:00	Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 16:00	Toliara, Mitriaky	Madagascar	0.1
	17/01/2023 14:00	Fianarantsoa, Manakara	Madagascar	0.0
	17/01/2023 14:00	, Miramar	Mozambique	0.0
	17/01/2023 20:00	Toliara, Manambato	Madagascar	0.0

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
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The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.