Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
22 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (22 Jan 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.6 m 142 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar1,576 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmComoros, Madagascar, Reunion230,944
+
Comoros41,822 
Madagascar182,092 
Reunion7,028 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Reunion10,499,977
+
Comoros209,511 
Madagascar9,433,323 
Malawi2,630 
Mozambique386 
Reunion854,125 
50-100 mmTanzania, Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mayotte, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mauritius13,214,203
+
Tanzania10,300 
Comoros74,785 
Madagascar8,452,383 
Malawi2,282,908 
Mayotte75,024 
Mozambique1,550,335 
Zambia101,305 
Zimbabwe644,510 
Mauritius22,650 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 135 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 136 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 193 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 245 70 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 482 10.7 million
- - - Tanzania, Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mayotte, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Mahajanga, Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20/01/2023 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20/01/2023 09:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 05:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 06:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 06:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 03:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 10:00 Toliara, Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 12:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
18/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Fianarantsoa, Manakara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Fianarantsoa, Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Fianarantsoa, Itenina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Fianarantsoa, Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Nampula, Miaola Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Tampina Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 10:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 12:00 Toamasina, Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Nampula, Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Fianarantsoa, Loharano Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Fianarantsoa, Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 10:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Toamasina, Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 , Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 18:00 Inhambane, Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Nampula, Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Fianarantsoa, Akondro Madagascar  0.1