Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar
23 Jan 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (23 Jan 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.6 m 122 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 0.7 m 1041 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar54,515 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Zambia
GREEN 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 - 2 million
Tanzania, Kenya, Seychelles, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Eswatini
GREEN 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 23 Jan 2023 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar, Reunion474,506
+
Madagascar121,342 
Reunion353,164 
100-250 mmComoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion7,456,593
+
Comoros164,001 
Madagascar5,554,365 
Mauritius1,230,236 
Reunion507,989 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa9,349,158
+
Tanzania10,357 
Malawi2,040,754 
Zambia775,588 
Comoros86,628 
Madagascar5,951,709 
Mozambique143,917 
Zimbabwe171,112 
South Africa169,090 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2023 12:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 18 Jan 2023 00:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jan 2023 12:00 356 -
- - - - - Seychelles, Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 4 19 Jan 2023 00:00 133 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 5 19 Jan 2023 12:00 156 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 6 20 Jan 2023 00:00 118 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 20 Jan 2023 12:00 135 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 21 Jan 2023 00:00 136 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 21 Jan 2023 12:00 193 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 22 Jan 2023 00:00 245 70 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 11 22 Jan 2023 12:00 142 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 23 Jan 2023 00:00 220 40 thousand
- - - - Comoros, Madagascar
Blue 13 23 Jan 2023 12:00 472 7.9 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Sofala, Jonja, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 19/01/2023 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2023 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19/01/2023 16:00 Sofala, Jonja Mozambique  0.3
19/01/2023 16:00 Sofala, Machesse Mozambique  0.3
19/01/2023 20:00 Mahajanga, Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Zambezia, Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 02:00 Zambezia, Mulia Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Toamasina, Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 09:00 Mahajanga, Baly Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 03:00 Zambezia, Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Mahajanga, Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 02:00 , Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 12:00 Pwani, Msindaji Tanzania  0.2
20/01/2023 03:00 Nampula, Coropoa Mozambique  0.2
19/01/2023 19:00 Toliara, Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 06:00 Mahajanga, Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
19/01/2023 13:00 , Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
20/01/2023 04:00 Nampula, Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 , Cabaceira Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Miaola Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 , Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 , Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Nampula, Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Manompana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 12:00 Pwani, Magawa Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toamasina, Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 00:00 Toamasina, Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 23:00 Toamasina, Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
17/01/2023 19:00 Mjini-Magharibi (Zanzibar Urban/West), Zanzibar Fumba Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Cabo Delgado, Morumequina Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Cabo Delgado, Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Toamasina, Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 00:00 Fianarantsoa, Manakara Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Itenina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 02:00 Toamasina, Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Tampina Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Toamasina, Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 , Tavari Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Fianarantsoa, Loharano Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 02:00 Fianarantsoa, Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 , Pangane Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Ile Sainte-marie Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 09:00 Toamasina, Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 , Dzaoudzi Mayotte  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Inhambane, Ilha do Bazaruto Asneira Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Antsiranana, Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Cabo Delgado, Ingoane Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 Antsiranana, Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Cabo Delgado, Bawala Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Tanga, Bomalandani Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 , Nosy Komba Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Toliara, Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Mahajanga, Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
18/01/2023 17:00 Inhambane, Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Toliara, Manambato Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Toliara, Mitriaky Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Antsiranana, Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Coast, Mkwiro Kenya  0.1
20/01/2023 08:00 Antsiranana, Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 11:00 Pwani, Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 07:00 Antsiranana, Nossi-be Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 , Nosy Mitsio Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 , Mariano Mozambique  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Tanga, Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 04:00 Antsiranana, Andranira Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Gazija Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Coast, Kisima Chande Kenya  0.1
20/01/2023 06:00 Antsiranana, Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
20/01/2023 05:00 , Grande Comore Chezani Comoros  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Kusini Unguja (Zanzibar Central/South), Zanzibar Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
20/01/2023 03:00 Fianarantsoa, Akondro Madagascar  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Kaskazini-Unguja (Zanzibar North), Zanzibar Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Kusini-Pemba (Pemba South), Pemba Kitwea Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 17:00 Kaskazini-Pemba (Pemba North), Pemba Kiuyu Tanzania  0.1
19/01/2023 16:00 Dar-es-Salaam, Msasani Tanzania  0.1