Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	148 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.0 m (09 Dec 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	148 km/h	1.0 m	142 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	Madagascar	5,891
CAT. 1	Seychelles, Madagascar	16,494	+
	Seychelles	206
	Madagascar	16,288
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	366,488

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	194	20 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	8,656
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	78,593	+
	Seychelles	206
	Madagascar	78,387
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte	1,667,056	+
	Comoros	24,846
	Madagascar	1,424,920
	Mayotte	217,290

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	407	90 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Andramy	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	1.0
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.6
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.6
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 11:30	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 11:15	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 00:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:15	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:15	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:15	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:15	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:45	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 09:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:15	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 08:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 21:15	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Cani	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Sada	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Dapani	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Bandele	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Lokia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 13:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.