Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

08 Dec 2019 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	115 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.2 m (09 Dec 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	115 km/h	1.2 m	188 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to 180 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Madagascar	17
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	178,538

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	151	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	45,847
100-250 mm	Madagascar	144,989
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte	704,916	+
	Tanzania	5,747
	Mozambique	487
	Comoros	18,117
	Madagascar	570,292
	Mayotte	110,273

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	415	190 thousand				-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.2m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	1.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	1.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 20:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 22:45	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 22:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 22:45	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 22:45	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.7
	09 Dec 2019 23:15	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 02:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 02:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 02:30	Manampea	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 02:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 02:30	Onara	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 00:15	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 00:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 07:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 07:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 07:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.6
	10 Dec 2019 07:15	Belailay	Madagascar	0.5
	10 Dec 2019 04:15	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.5
	10 Dec 2019 08:30	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.5
	10 Dec 2019 08:30	Andemba	Madagascar	0.5
	10 Dec 2019 09:15	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.5
	10 Dec 2019 09:15	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.4
	10 Dec 2019 06:15	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Soalala	Madagascar	0.4
	10 Dec 2019 13:15	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 14:30	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Andramy	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Dec 2019 13:30	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Befamata	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Zavo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 11:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:45	Mwera	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:45	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Nacala Velha	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Namelala	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Capelelene	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Nhiendgi	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Maaia	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Nacala	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Chepa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Matiquite	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Minhauine	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 08:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 09:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 07:45	Pangome	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 07:45	Arimba	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 07:45	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 07:45	Tavari	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.