Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Mar 15:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
HWRF Overall 212 km/h 4.1 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

212 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar17935 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 252 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 - - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Marofototra, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Mar 2019 15:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 15:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 14:45 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 15:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 13:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 13:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:30 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:15 Colchester South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:15 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Napito Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Watamu Kenya  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Malindi Kenya  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Barra Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:30 Highfield South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:30 Mtunzini South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Memba Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Formone Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:15 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 14:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:45 Amado Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 15:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:45 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:30 Dokodweni South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:30 Tama Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link