Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (17 Jan 09:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.1 m 62 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

137 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar30,560 
100-250 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe1,721,910
+
Tanzania16,092 
Zambia6,091 
Malawi790 
Madagascar1,405,631 
Mozambique60,597 
Zimbabwe232,709 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe18,838,659
+
Tanzania1,531,743 
Zambia603,657 
Malawi3,892,612 
Madagascar5,001,576 
Mozambique3,282,101 
Zimbabwe4,526,970 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 479 1.8 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Induna, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 17 Jan 2021 09:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Jan 2021 09:30 Induna Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:45 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 09:45 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 12:00 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Tama Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 11:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 10:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1