Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (23 Jan 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 2.2 m 138 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique693,681 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

608 mm

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique11,775 
100-250 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe1,321,158
+
Mozambique1,185,764 
Zimbabwe135,394 
50-100 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar1,321,798
+
Mozambique803,334 
Zimbabwe463,676 
Madagascar54,788 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Zambia
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 160 70 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 117 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 268 1.3 million
- - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.2m in Ambanhe, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  2.2
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Ampara Mozambique  2.2
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.2
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Manica Mozambique  2.1
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Antunes Mozambique  1.8
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Chamba Mozambique  1.8
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Beira Mozambique  1.8
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Damiao Mozambique  1.8
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Nhangau Mozambique  1.8
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  1.7
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.5
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Panaca Mozambique  1.5
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Chiloane Mozambique  1.4
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Divinhe Mozambique  1.3
22 Jan 2021 20:45 Tama Mozambique  1.3
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Jonja Mozambique  1.2
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Bingue Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Rupia Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Machesse Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.9
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.8
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Jo Mozambique  0.8
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Catine Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Amado Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 China Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Beula Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Afo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Chicoque Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Banga Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1