Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELOISE-21 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC to 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21

in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mozambique
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	137 km/h
Maximum storm surge	2.2 m (23 Jan 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	137 km/h	2.2 m	138 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	137 km/h	2.2 m	608 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mozambique	693,681

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Jan 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Jan 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 Jan 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Jan 2021 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Jan 2021 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 Jan 2021 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 Jan 2021 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 Jan 2021 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	19 Jan 2021 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	19 Jan 2021 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 Jan 2021 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	20 Jan 2021 00:00	61	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	20 Jan 2021 06:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
14	20 Jan 2021 12:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
15	20 Jan 2021 18:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
16	21 Jan 2021 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	21 Jan 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
18	21 Jan 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
19	21 Jan 2021 18:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	22 Jan 2021 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	22 Jan 2021 06:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	22 Jan 2021 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	22 Jan 2021 18:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

608 mm

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Mozambique	11,775
100-250 mm	Mozambique, Zimbabwe	1,321,158	+
	Mozambique	1,185,764
	Zimbabwe	135,394
50-100 mm	Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar	1,321,798	+
	Mozambique	803,334
	Zimbabwe	463,676
	Madagascar	54,788

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Jan 2021 06:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Jan 2021 12:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
3	17 Jan 2021 18:00	142	-		-	-	-	-	-	Zimbabwe, Mozambique
4	18 Jan 2021 00:00	281	Few people			-	-	-	-	Mozambique
5	18 Jan 2021 06:00	384	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
6	18 Jan 2021 12:00	191	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
7	18 Jan 2021 18:00	103	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
8	19 Jan 2021 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	19 Jan 2021 06:00	81	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
10	19 Jan 2021 12:00	82	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
11	19 Jan 2021 18:00	201	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	20 Jan 2021 00:00	213	80 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	20 Jan 2021 06:00	186	180 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
14	20 Jan 2021 12:00	198	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique
15	20 Jan 2021 18:00	150	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
16	21 Jan 2021 00:00	54	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
17	21 Jan 2021 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
18	21 Jan 2021 12:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
19	21 Jan 2021 18:00	89	-		-	-	-	-	-	Zambia
20	22 Jan 2021 00:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
21	22 Jan 2021 06:00	160	70 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique
22	22 Jan 2021 12:00	117	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
23	22 Jan 2021 18:00	268	1.3 million				-	-	-	Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

2.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 2.2m in Ambanhe, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Ambanhe	Mozambique	2.2
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Ampara	Mozambique	2.2
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	2.2
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Manica	Mozambique	2.1
	22 Jan 2021 23:45	Antunes	Mozambique	1.8
	22 Jan 2021 23:45	Chamba	Mozambique	1.8
	22 Jan 2021 23:45	Beira	Mozambique	1.8
	22 Jan 2021 23:45	Damiao	Mozambique	1.8
	22 Jan 2021 23:45	Nhangau	Mozambique	1.8
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Metambanhe	Mozambique	1.7
	22 Jan 2021 21:15	Chofandicho	Mozambique	1.5
	22 Jan 2021 21:15	Panaca	Mozambique	1.5
	22 Jan 2021 23:45	Chiloane	Mozambique	1.4
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Divinhe	Mozambique	1.3
	22 Jan 2021 20:45	Tama	Mozambique	1.3
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Jonja	Mozambique	1.2
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Bingue	Mozambique	1.0
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Rupia	Mozambique	1.0
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Machesse	Mozambique	1.0
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.9
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Dinguiduane	Mozambique	0.8
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Jo	Mozambique	0.8
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Bartolomeu Dias	Mozambique	0.8
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Laisse	Mozambique	0.6
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Natalia	Mozambique	0.6
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Inhassoro	Mozambique	0.6
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Catine	Mozambique	0.4
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.4
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Afonso	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Caulino	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Asneira	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Castigo	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Xetoquica	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Vilanculos	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	China	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Mariano	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Chichocane	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Mahoa	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Uetela	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 20:00	Beula	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 20:00	Morrumbene	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 20:00	Mabsil	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 20:00	Marivate	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 21:00	Guiducua	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 23:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 23:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 23:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 23:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Bambe	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Maguemba	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 22:30	Afo	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 21:00	Maxixe	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 21:00	Chicoque	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 21:00	Inhambane	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 21:00	Guilande	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 21:00	Banga	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 21:00	Praia do Tofo	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 21:00	Miramar	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 19:45	Macashale	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 19:45	Macanzele	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 23:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 20:45	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 18:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 18:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 18:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 18:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.