Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
22 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (22 Jan 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 122 km/h 0.4 m 140 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique95 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

608 mm

Up to 2.2 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMozambique2,189,287 
50-100 mmMozambique, Malawi, Madagascar1,198,879
+
Mozambique1,110,960 
Malawi2,926 
Madagascar84,993 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Zambia
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 279 2.2 million
- - - - Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Barra Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 05:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Amado Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 05:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Caliua Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Antunes Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Beira Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:30 Tama Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:45 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Manica Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:45 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:45 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:15 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Napito Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Larde Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Aube Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:30 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1