Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
21 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (21 Jan 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.4 m 54 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 60 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique62,728
+
Madagascar12,170 
Mozambique50,558 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique508,992 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe2,007,485
+
Mozambique1,660,796 
Madagascar133,691 
Zimbabwe212,998 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe7,893,853
+
Tanzania2,656,564 
Zambia546,858 
Malawi405,350 
Mozambique1,880,560 
Madagascar1,465,434 
Zimbabwe939,087 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 370 2.5 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Masokoamena, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2021 01:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Katsepy Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Majunga Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Ampitily Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Singalana Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Antaribao Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 00:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:30 Madirobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:30 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:15 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:15 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:30 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankomany Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:30 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:30 Mariarano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Beira Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 03:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 03:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:15 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Tama Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 05:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:15 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 05:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 05:45 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Metula Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:30 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:30 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:30 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:30 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:30 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:30 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Marere Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Mucojo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Foque Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Pangane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Berafia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1