Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17 Jan 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 Jan 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 61 km/h 0.2 m 142 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar1,051 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar283,857 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe2,517,730
+
Mozambique503,810 
Madagascar1,619,389 
Zimbabwe394,531 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe20,389,963
+
Tanzania1,281,224 
Malawi4,731,575 
Zambia193,321 
Mozambique3,895,681 
Madagascar3,498,363 
Zimbabwe6,789,799 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 562 2.8 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 Jan 2021 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Beula Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Befamata Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Zavo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Lavanono Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Manica Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Behavoa Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Anompaka Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Mahitsihazo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 18:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:15 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:15 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:30 Beira Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:30 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Antunes Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Chamba Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 China Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:15 Onara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:30 Amado Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:15 Farafangana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:15 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:15 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:45 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:45 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:45 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:45 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 18:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Afo Mozambique  0.1