Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
23 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (23 Jan 00:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 133 km/h 2.2 m 102 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique162,233 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

608 mm

Up to 240 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMozambique235,751 
50-100 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe1,182,489
+
Mozambique1,038,527 
Zimbabwe143,962 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Zambia
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 160 70 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 117 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 138 7 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 195 240 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

2.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.2m in Ambanhe, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 00:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 00:15 Ambanhe Mozambique  2.2
23 Jan 2021 00:15 Ampara Mozambique  2.2
23 Jan 2021 00:15 Manica Mozambique  2.2
23 Jan 2021 00:15 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.2
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Antunes Mozambique  1.8
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Chamba Mozambique  1.8
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Beira Mozambique  1.8
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  1.8
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Nhangau Mozambique  1.8
23 Jan 2021 01:30 Metambanhe Mozambique  1.7
23 Jan 2021 04:30 Divinhe Mozambique  1.6
23 Jan 2021 04:30 Chiloane Mozambique  1.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.0
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Panaca Mozambique  1.0
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Jo Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 00:45 Natalia Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 00:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 03:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Tama Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Catine Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 01:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 01:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 01:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 05:00 China Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 05:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 05:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 05:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 00:45 Beula Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 00:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 00:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 00:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Afo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Chicoque Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Banga Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 01:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:30 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 05:15 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:45 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:45 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:45 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 04:45 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1