Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
21 Jan 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (21 Jan 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.4 m 86 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 480 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique478,925
+
Madagascar9,875 
Mozambique469,050 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique835,630 
100-250 mmZambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe2,868,153
+
Zambia6,237 
Mozambique2,129,415 
Madagascar16,815 
Zimbabwe715,686 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe9,789,758
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo3,506 
Tanzania2,725,567 
Zambia1,194,010 
Malawi1,380,278 
Mozambique2,528,525 
Madagascar860,079 
Zimbabwe1,097,793 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 345 3.7 million
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Antunes, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2021 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Beira Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Manica Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:45 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:45 Ampara Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 10:45 Tama Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 07:30 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:15 Amado Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Barra Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:30 Baly Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:15 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:15 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:15 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 07:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:45 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:30 Madirobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:30 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:45 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:45 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Napito Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Metula Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:45 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:30 Larde Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:30 Aube Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:30 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Maputo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Morombe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Anadramy Nord Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:15 Mangolovolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:45 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankomany Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Mariarano Madagascar  0.1