Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
21 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (21 Jan 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 101 km/h 0.3 m 99 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 200 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique196,033
+
Madagascar5,069 
Mozambique190,964 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique736,286 
100-250 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe3,023,248
+
Mozambique2,605,530 
Zimbabwe417,718 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar8,412,825
+
Tanzania223,080 
Malawi2,323,314 
Zambia1,232,058 
Mozambique2,148,608 
Zimbabwe1,778,295 
Madagascar707,470 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 348 3.8 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Ambatomilahy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2021 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Beira Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 13:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 15:45 Manica Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Tama Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 13:30 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 13:15 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 13:15 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 13:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 17:15 Amado Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 17:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 17:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 17:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:30 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:15 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Napito Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Maputo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:30 Larde Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:30 Aube Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:30 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Angoche Mozambique  0.1